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BEX Forecast Event Shows Construction Market Presented Exceptional Resilience, Flexibility in 2025

by | Feb 6, 2026 | Recent Events | 0 comments

By Roland Murphy for AZBEX

The dominant theme and mood for the Arizona construction market heading into 2025 was uncertainty. Major changes in federal policies, expected shifts in population growth, nearly every economic indicator up in the air, increases in organized resistance to projects and a range of other trend factors made forecasting the sector’s direction in the year ahead as much an exercise in prognostication as informed projection.

A new theme emerged in preparing for the 2026 BEX Construction Activity Forecast Event: Resilience. Since the collapse of the Great Recession, the construction market in general—and the Arizona construction market in particular—has demonstrated a remarkable ability adapt to shifts in the wind and tack a course for growth and delivery.

Once again delivered in two separate but identical sessions to accommodate the number of attendees, the Forecast Event gave BEX President and Founder Rebekah Morris and key members of the BEX Research Team—generally referred to as “The BEXperts”—a forum to distill major trends across the state for the core construction sectors.

As their primary ongoing duty, The BEXperts track projects across three primary sectors (Public Infrastructure, Housing and Private Development) and 10 core sectors (K-12 – Public & Charter Schools, Higher Education, Public Spaces, Transportation & Parks, Utilities, Housing, [Multifamily, Build-to-Rent], Industrial [Warehouse/Manufacturing, Data Centers], Healthcare, Hospitality, and Office & Retail).

Hundreds of new projects are entered each year into the DATABEX project database, and the thousands already input are updated. For The Forecast Event, all that data is scrubbed, dissected and analyzed to present the audience with comprehensive overviews of the total market and activity changes in each of its subsectors over the preceding 12 months, along with our best estimates of what can be expected in the year to come.

BEX General Manager Bobby Raether welcomed attendees and gave Move Over Bob co-founder and CEO Kate Glantz an opportunity to introduce her magazine and her organization’s vision for opening opportunities in the skilled trades for women and young people. Following Glantz’s brief comments and invitation for follow-up, Raether provided a process overview of how The BEXperts do what they do and set expectations for what attendees would see in the next two hours’ data dump.

And with that, the mornings were off and running.

State of the Market

Following Raether’s introduction, Morris took the stage to deliver her market summary of the major economic factors driving Arizona construction. As has become her stock in trade with this presentation, she covered the key factors of Population Growth, Employment, Inflation, Cost of Capital (Interest Rates), Regulation and Tariffs, and Funding Uncertainty.

In her introduction to the economic factors, Morris told attendees the key takeaway over 2025 was the uncertainty the market faced at this time last year was met with an exceptional degree of resilience across the majority of the market. Most specifically:

  • Federal funding for infrastructure via executive orders did not kill projects;
  • Local government got creative to ensure and maintain capital funding, and
  • Markets have adjusted and continue to move forward.

Following her statements on resilience, Morris dove into the economic driver data attendees have come to expect. Starting with population growth, she pointed out that, after several years of maintaining a growth rate of around 1.5%, the rate dipped in 2024 and held in 2025 at around 1.27%.

Total employment in Arizona continues to hold to a generally upward trend over the last several years, reaching a total of 3.275 million jobs in 2025. That number dipped slightly from 2024, but the state is still reporting 21.58% more jobs than its previous peak in 2007.

At 223,500 jobs to close out 2025, construction employment remains strong. Still, reflecting the now-ever-present theme of “doing more with less,” the sector is still down 7% from its previous peak in 2006.

Not including 2020, which shall forever be considered an asterisk in economic data sets, construction employment generally increased between 5% and 10% year-over-year between 2016 and 2024. In 2024, it fell roughly 1%, which Morris referred to as “functionally flat.” The sector rebounded in 2025, however, going up 3.42% by year-end.

Estimated construction activity for 2025 was calculated at $25.7B, showing the market has roughly doubled in volume since 2016, even after adjusting for inflation.

Looking back to assess how the reality of 2025 compared to the BEX forecast, Morris reported a prediction of $29B for a year that actually showed an estimated $31.9B. Much of that disparity was attributed to the fact many more data centers were announced than originally envisioned, along with the unexpected announcements of massive expansions to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Amkor campuses.

It is also worth noting the complete Construction market total includes single-family residential, which is not a sector BEX tracks as part of its standard industry reporting.

Another item of uncertainty has been the way federal infrastructure projects are now handled. The current administration has brought much more flexibility and confusion into what will be built, when and by whom, with less precise structuring and departures from traditional procurement and, with that, reduced ability to track and report.

The Market Sectors

Following Morris’ overview, she, DATABEX Manager Lya Parrish and Market Researchers Andrea Howard and Jaden Schneider dove with both feet into their reviews of each of the primary market sectors.

Each of their presentations was filled with data and nuances about trends and happenings, along with shifts in both the overall sector and individual projects. In the interests of space and maximizing the value received from attending the event, we are limiting our coverage to just the key data points for the sectors, their players and key projects.

K-12 and Charter Schools

  • Top Project: Tolleson High School #8 ($180M);
  • Top Owner: Tolleson Union High School District;
  • Top Design Firm: DLR Group;
  • Top GC: Chasse Building Team;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $773.5M.

Higher Education

  • Top Project: McCain National Library ($167M);
  • Top Owner: Arizona State University;
  • Top Design Firm: BWS Architects;
  • Top GC: McCarthy Building Companies;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $480.4M.

Public Spaces

  • Top Project: Douglas Commercial Land Port of Entry ($325M);
  • Top Owner: City of Phoenix;
  • Top Design Firm: Jones Studio;
  • Top GC: Hensel Phelps Construction;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $1.4B.

Transportation & Parks

  • Top Project: U.S.-Mexico Border Wall Tucson and Yuma Sectors ($606M);
  • Top Owner: ADOT (Arizona Department of Transportation);
  • Top Design Firm: Kimley-Horn & Associates;
  • Top GC: Sundt Construction;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $3.2B.

Utilities

  • Top Project: SunZia SW Transmission Project ($1.5B);
  • Top Owner: City of Phoenix;
  • Top Design Firm: Water Works Engineers;
  • Top GC: Sundt Construction;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $2.32B.

Multifamily (Apartments/Condos)

  • Top Project: Center Complex Project ($400M);
  • Top Owner: The Empire Group;
  • Top Design Firm: Todd & Associates;
  • Top GC: Layton Construction

Build-to-Rent

  • Top Owner: Dominium Apartments;
  • Top Design Firm: Felten Group;
  • Top GC: Lifestyle Homes;
  • Projected 2025 Combined Multifamily Construction Volume: $6.8B.

Industrial (Warehouse & Manufacturing)

  • Top Project: TSMC Fabs 1-6 ($30B – adjusted for equipment & machinery);
  • Top Owner: TSMC;
  • Top Design Firm: Ware Malcomb;
  • Top GC: Okland Construction.

Data Centers

  • Top Project: Project Baccara ($3B);
  • Top Owner: Takanock;
  • Top Design Firm: Corgan;
  • Top GC: Holder Construction;
  • Combined Projected Industrial and Data Center Construction Volume: $11.55B.

Healthcare

  • Top Project: Mayo Clinic Expansion ($1.9B);
  • Top Owner: Mayo Clinic;
  • Top Design Firm: SmithGroup;
  • Top GC: Okland Construction;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $723M.

Hospitality

  • Top Project: Cardinals Training Facility & Team Headquarters ($200M);
  • Top Owner: Arizona Cardinals;
  • Top Design Firm: Gensler;
  • Top GC: M.A. Mortenson Company;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $1.12B.

Office & Retail

  • Top Project: TSMC Main Office Building ($247.5M);
  • Top Owner: Vestar;
  • Top Design Firm: SmithGroup;
  • Top GC: Okland Construction;
  • Projected 2026 Construction Volume: $962M.

Conclusions

When the individual sector reports were finished, Morris thanked her fellow presenters, the Research team, the attendees and the event sponsors before delivering her conclusions and parting thoughts.

These included a hat tip to 2025 for showing that, while difficult challenges remain, they are not insurmountable. She also highlighted:

  • Growth is still happening, but it is uneven;
  • The federal government really should follow contracting rules for procurements;
  • The trend of announcing groundbreakings (and holding ceremonial groundbreaking events) for projects that are not even entitled, permitted or that do not yet even have a contractor in place confuses accurate timeline reporting, and
  • With all the unknowns, shifts and question-raising practices, processes and events currently impacting Construction as an industry, critical thinking and precision questioning are more important now than ever.

Morris closed the event, as per usual, with BEX’s best estimate of overall activity for the next three years. In 2026, the data indicate Arizona Construction will see a volume of $31.1B, followed by $35.5B in 2027 and $39B in 2028.

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STEVE BOSCHEN
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR - INFRASTRUCTURE DELIVERY & OPERATIONS
ADOT

 

Steve Boschen currently serves as an assistant director of ADOT overseeing the Infrastructure Delivery and Operations (IDO) Division, which oversees all statewide construction project delivery, including ADOT and Local Public Agency projects, and statewide operations and maintenance. Steve is responsible for Project Management, Operations, Project Delivery, Contracts and Local Public Agency areas of ADOT, which include a total of 20 groups and districts. This includes the development, construction, maintenance and operation of more than 28,000 lane miles of interstate and state highways in Arizona. He rejoined ADOT in October 2012 as a deputy state engineer for Project Delivery after a 20-year stint in the engineering consulting industry. Steve has a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from the University of Arizona and is a registered professional engineer in the state of Arizona.

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WENDY COHEN
PRESIDENT & CEO
KITCHELL

 

As President & CEO, Wendy leads Kitchell Corporation with a collaborative spirit. Kitchell Corporation includes four diverse operating companies, Kitchell Contractors Inc., Kitchell Capital Expenditure Managers Inc., Kitchell Development Company Inc., and American Refrigeration Supplies. Wendy is passionate about developing a strategy and culture that allows for innovation and change in the construction industry. With 30 years of experience, Wendy's journey in the building industry has been marked by significant roles as a general contractor, construction manager, consultant, and owner, culminating in her current leadership at Kitchell. Wendy is a proven leader and trusted advisor and is committed to developing future leaders and implementing innovative ideas to improve the built environment. Her experience leading high-performance teams paved the way for her current role at Kitchell, which is consistently ranked among the top Construction Management, Program Management and General Contracting firms both regionally and nationally. Beyond her corporate achievements, she is active in the community and industry. She serves on the boards of the Greater Sacramento Economic Council, Greater Phoenix Economic Council, and Greater Phoenix Leadership. In 2024, Wendy and Kitchell were accepted into the Global Design Allowance as the newest Board of Director and joined the American Contractors Insurance Group (ACIG) as its Executive Member.

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ERIC FROBERG
CITY ENGINEER
CITY OF PHOENIX

 

Eric has served as City Engineer for the City of Phoenix since January 2019, which included a 6 month assignment as Interim Director of Water Services, a 5 month assignment as Interim Director of Public Works, and a 1 month assignment of Street Transportation. Eric possesses over a quarter century of relevant public works and land development engineering experience. Prior to joining the City of Phoenix, most recently Eric was the New Mexico Operations Manager for TYLIN International and prior to that was a Senior Project Manager for RBF Consulting. After spending two decades working as a private consultant, Eric desired to utilize his engineering and management expertise in a way that more directly benefited the public. As the City Engineer for the nation’s 5th largest City, Eric is responsible for overseeing the selection of architects, engineers & contractors and the execution the City's 5-year, $11 billion Capital Improvement Program, including serving as the program manager for the current $500M General Obligation Bond program. Eric holds a bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Arizona and is a Registered Professional Engineer in Arizona, California, and New Mexico. Eric is currently a member of the Alumni Industry Council for the University of Arizona, previously held the position of State Director for ACEC-NM.

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SUSANNA STRUBLE
TOWN ENGINEER - CIP MANAGER
TOWN OF GILBERT

 

Susanna Struble is the Town of Gilbert’s Assistant Town Engineer/ CIP Manager, with more than 35 years of related private consulting and municipal engineering experience. She currently manages a team of 12 CIP project managers in the development, design and construction of a $3.5B 10 year Capital Improvement Program. Prior to joining Gilbert, Susanna served as Public Works Director/City Engineer for Coolidge, Arizona; various engineering positions with Willdan Engineering which included serving as the regional manager for the Phoenix operation for over 10 years; City Engineer in Show Low Arizona and Assistant County Engineer in Eagle County, Colorado. Ms. Struble is a Registered Professional Civil Engineer in the State of Arizona; she received her Bachelor’s Degree in Civil Engineering from University of Wyoming.

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ALISON TYMKIW
CITY ENGINEER
CITY OF SCOTTSDALE

 

Alison Tymkiw is currently serving as the City Engineer for the City of Scottsdale, Arizona. Alison is responsible for administering the City’s Capital Improvement Program and she manages the Capital Project Management Division which is responsible for the planning, design and construction of infrastructure improvement around the city. Alison has worked for the City of Scottsdale since 1998 and has previously held the positions of Civil Engineer, Project Manager and Senior Project Manager prior to promotion to her current role as City Engineer. Prior to joining the City of Scottsdale, Alison worked for engineering design and consulting firms, first in Connecticut and then in the local Phoenix area. Alison holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Civil Engineering from Lehigh University, and she is a Registered Professional Engineer in the State of Arizona.

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AALIYAH KOELZER
DATABEX RESEARCHER
BEX

 

Aaliyah is a DATABEX Researcher specializing in Arizona’s Commercial Real Estate Market. Starting his construction career in the field, Aaliyah gained hands on skills working as a stonemason in the northern state of Montana. After obtaining a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Mathematics, he moved to the Grand Canyon State to gain further experience in Real Estate Development and Construction Management.

Currently Aaliyah manages and maintains the entirety of DATABEX’s active Industrial, Hospitality, Healthcare, Office and Retail projects in
Arizona.

Three interesting facts about Aaliyah:
- He is an avid angler and bowhunter
- He enjoys playing the guitar in his free time
- He played soccer for the Montana State University Men’s Soccer Club

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ANDREA HOWARD
MARKET RESEARCHER
BEX

 

Andrea is a market researcher for BEX. She specializes in scouring permit sites, council meetings, and any other sources she can find to provide the most up to date information for the multifamily sector. Since joining the company in 2021 she has learned to spot construction trends to not only supply updates to DATABEX, but to gain insight into the shifting market.

Fun facts about Andrea
- She is originally from Texas
- She has a Bachelor’s degree in Japanese Language
- She was an Arabic linguist in the Air Force

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REBEKAH MORRIS

FOUNDER & PRESIDENT
BEX

 

Rebekah started the twice-weekly AZBEX publication in February 2010, and has since grown
the service into a multi-faceted resource for local Commercial Real Estate and A/E/C firms to find leads on upcoming projects, industry news, trends, and market insights. In 2015, AZBEX started producing events and now features four annual half-day conferences and six breakfast panels known as the Leading Market Series.

In 2016, the AZBEX Database or DATABEX was launched. Both the events and database are engineered to bring opportunities to clients – whether it’s the contacts made at a half-day conference or bi-monthly breakfast program or the early stage notice of a project in the database, every service of AZBEX is focused on bringing opportunity to clients.

Rebekah’s background as a large General Contractor enabled her to spot the opportunity to start BEX, but it is her grit, determination and eternal curiosity for the industry that has kept it going and growing each year.

Three fun facts about Rebekah:
- Hobbies include running, cooking, reading and hanging out with her husband and kids
- She has a degree in construction engineering
- She cannot whistle

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LYA PARRISH
DATABEX MANAGER
BEX

 

Lya Parrish is the DATABEX Manager for BEX, Arizona’s leading Construction Market Research company. Lya holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and a Master’s degree in Policy and Applied Social Research. She has been actively studying the Arizona Construction market since 2015.

She leads a team of six full-time Market Researchers and is responsible for training and development of staff, market analytics, and development of the technical aspects of DATABEX.

Three fun facts about Lya:
- She is a Sci-Fi/Fantasy, LEGO, and cross-stitch fanatic
- She has two nearly identical cats
- Her childhood home is roughly 1,000 yards from the BEX Office in Central Phoenix

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